Physical retail shifts its metrics: quality over quantity

The latest data published by the Spanish company TC Group Solutions in its 2026 Retail Intelligence Report points to an ongoing transformation in how European physical retail performance is measured.

This scenario requires a review of one of the most historically used indicators by operators and brands: pedestrian traffic. It paves the way for more qualitative metrics that allow for a better interpretation of behaviour in these spaces. The quality of the visitor, their purchase intent and the length of their stay become crucial as we move towards experiential proposals. It matters less how many people enter and more how and why they stay.

Less traffic, more store entries

According to the analysis for the first quarter of 2026, external traffic in Spanish shopping centres fell by -1.9 percent compared to the same period last year, while store entries grew by +3.3 percent. The divergence between these two indicators is not a one-off anomaly. It confirms a trend that had already begun to emerge between 2024 and 2025.

The pattern is repeated in the four major cities analysed. Barcelona, Madrid, Seville and Valencia all show decreases in external traffic accompanied by improvements in internal conversion. Barcelona's traffic fell by -0.4 percent while its store entries grew by +2.4 percent. Madrid, with a decrease of -1.3 percent, recorded the group's largest increase at +4.8 percent. Seville was down -1.4 percent but up +1.5 percent in entries. Valencia, with the largest traffic drop of the group at -1.7 percent, achieved a +4 percent growth in conversion.

At a regional level, the Community of Madrid recorded a -1.7 percent decrease in traffic but a +5.5 percent growth in store entries, the highest in the group. The Valencian Community shows a similar profile, with a -0.6 percent drop and a +5 percent growth in entries. Catalonia's traffic is down -0.4 percent, with entries up +2 percent. Andalusia is the only region to grow in both indicators, with a +1.5 percent increase in traffic and a +2.1 percent increase in entries.

From volume to qualified traffic

The question is no longer just how many people pass by an establishment. It is about how many of them enter, how long they stay and their capacity to generate economic activity.

This shift in metrics stems from a structural transformation in the sector. The rise of e-commerce, consumer digitalisation and the need to differentiate the physical experience have led European shopping centres to accelerate their conversion to hybrid formats. These formats combine retail, dining, leisure and services. Between 20 and 30 percent of the space in many European shopping complexes is now dedicated to food, beverage and entertainment offerings.

The Mediterranean model has been particularly receptive to this evolution. Its shopping centres tend to incorporate semi-open structures, terraces, squares and communal areas that encourage more social uses of the commercial environment. Far from functioning exclusively as places to shop, these complexes increasingly act as spaces for lingering and meeting, especially on weekends and in high-density metropolitan areas.

In this context, the so-called “micro-location” is establishing itself as a key competitive factor for retailers and property managers. Analysing consumer journeys within a retail space allows for the optimisation of layouts, meaning the strategic distribution of surfaces and flows. It also helps redefine the composition of the tenant mix, understood as the combination of operators and categories coexisting in the shopping centre, based on real behavioural patterns. In parallel, the growing sophistication of Retail Intelligence tools is enabling an increasingly granular and precise reading of commercial performance.

Two models, one pressure

The international comparison shows, however, that the evolution of physical retail is not uniform. France and Italy, with similar external traffic growth in the first quarter of 2026 at +3 percent in both cases, show opposite trends in store entries.

In France, the first quarter of 2026 saw simultaneous growth in both external traffic (+3 percent) and store entries (+6.3 percent), consolidating a commercial ecosystem strongly integrated into the urban fabric. Cities like Marseille (+7.9 percent) and Paris (+2.6 percent) led the growth in traffic, supported by large metropolitan hubs capable of maintaining constant visitor flows.

Italy presents the opposite paradox. With the same external traffic growth (+3 percent), store entries decreased by -0.7 percent. This behaviour seems to correspond to a model more focused on proximity and commercial specialisation, where the consumer makes more targeted visits with a defined purchase intent. Milan and Rome led the growth in pedestrian traffic in the country, with increases of +4.4 and +4.7 percent respectively.

The contrast between the three markets is even more striking when looking at the annual evolution between 2024 and 2025. Italy then led the growth in store entries with 4.5 percent, followed by Spain with 2.3 percent and France with 0.4 percent. In external traffic, Spain grew by 0.2 percent, Italy by 1.2 percent and France fell by 1.8 percent. What was a converging trend between the three markets in 2024 and 2025 shows significant divergences in the first quarter of 2026. This is especially true for Italy, where conversion has deteriorated despite higher traffic.

The evolution of European physical retail seems to be pointing towards a scenario where shopping centres will function less as mass transit infrastructures and more as platforms for experience, interaction and qualified consumption.

For operators, owners and brands, the challenge is no longer just about attracting more people, but about better understanding what they do when they arrive.